In 2020, the new "Ceramic Industry Long March" survey produced a set of astonishing data: In just three years, the country has seen a net decrease of 211 ceramic factories and 504 production lines, a reduction that has reached the level of 211 ceramic factories and 504 production lines nationwide. 15% of the total production line.
What is this concept? We must know that "Guangdong", the largest ceramic production area in the country, has only 174 ceramic factories in 2020; "Fujian", the second largest production area in the country, has only 435 production lines in 2020.
If we compare the peak production capacity data in 2014, there was a net decrease of 297 ceramic factories and 861 production lines in the country in six years.
In addition, there is a set of data that is difficult to quantify that is even more shocking. In the three years from 2017 to 2020, the number of ceramic factories that changed hands and were revitalized through mergers, acquisitions, auctions, leases, etc., conservative statistics exceeded 15%, and some ceramic factories even changed hands multiple times. In other words, in the past three years, less than 70% of ceramic factories have survived safely.
The reshuffle in the ceramic industry has reached its peak in the past 20 years. If ceramic factories in the past were the withdrawal of one family after another, then many ceramic production areas now are the disappearance of one industrial park or another. Data shows that in the past, Beijing was the only province without ceramics factories in the country (mainland region), but now there are four provinces in the country (mainland region) without ceramics factories, namely Beijing, Tibet, Qinghai, and Hainan.
"Coal to gas", high-pressure environmental protection, policy iteration, poor management, etc. are several important reasons for the withdrawal of ceramic factories.
Shrinking market demand may be the biggest misjudgment of the ceramic industry
In recent years, the operating income of a large number of waist and tail ceramic companies has declined sharply, and the industry's total revenue has also shrunk significantly. The industry generally believes that this is caused by extreme overcapacity, shrinking market demand, and severely unsalable products.
Has market demand really shrunk?
Let’s first look at a set of real estate data. In the ten years from 2010 to 2019, both the sales area of commercial housing and the newly started construction area of real estate development houses across the country have shown an overall growth trend. There is no sign that the consumer demand for ceramic tiles is declining, even from data feedback Judging from the information, the downstream real estate market is still prosperous and will inevitably demand more ceramic tiles.
Let’s look at rural cities againAlthough there are no official data that can directly reflect the changes in the demand for ceramic tiles in the rural market, in the past ten years from 2011 to 2020, my country's roof tile (Western tile, blue tile) production lines and production capacity have continued to grow, indicating that new rural construction and renovating houses will increase significantly. For this building ceramics product that relies heavily on the rural market, if the demand in the rural market shrinks, how can the production lines and production capacity increase year after year, not to mention that China's urbanization construction is still in full swing.
By comparing the data of the number of ceramic enterprises, the number of production lines and the scale of ceramic tile production capacity in the country in the past three "Long March of the Ceramic Industry", although the number of ceramic enterprises and the number of production lines has decreased significantly, if we put aside outdoor wall tiles, square tiles and other outdoor With bricks, the production capacity of indoor bricks has not shrunk significantly.
Exterior wall tiles often fall off due to high altitude, causing damage to people and property. Affected by the policy of "restricting the tiling of high-rise buildings" in major cities, the exterior wall tile category has suffered a catastrophic blow - Compare the production capacity in 2014 Data show that in the past six years, the country's exterior wall tiles have plummeted from 589 production lines and a daily production capacity of 6.4765 million square meters to 313 production lines and a daily production capacity of 3.3789 million square meters. The annual production capacity has shrunk by nearly 1 billion square meters.
It is worth paying special attention that in 2017, my country's daily production capacity of ceramic tiles decreased by 1.07575 million square meters compared with 2014, ushering in the first decline in nearly 20 years. However, what is little known is that in 2017, my country's only daily production capacity of exterior wall tiles Compared with 2014, it decreased by 1.6777 million square meters.
This means that, leaving aside the exterior wall tile category, the production capacity of other ceramic tile products reached a new peak in 2017. Not only did it not shrink compared to 2014, but its daily production capacity actually increased by 601,950 square meters.
The new "Ceramic Industry Long March" survey data in 2020 shows that compared with the same period in 2017, my country's daily production capacity of ceramic tiles fell again from 43.96025 million square meters to 39.74315 million square meters, a reduction of 4.2171 million square meters. However, if the exterior wall tile category is excluded, the daily production capacity of other ceramic tile categories only decreased by 2.76075 million square meters, a shrinkage of 7.16%.
On the surface, in the three years from 2017 to 2020, my country’s daily production capacity of indoor ceramic tiles (excluding exterior wall tiles) has shrunk for the first time. However, in the past three years, only one production area in Guangdong has suffered from “coal-to-gas” and “environmental protection”. Due to policy factors such as "increasing standards", the daily production capacity of ceramic tiles has been reduced by 2.3162 million square meters; Linyi, Shandong Province has also been affected by policies such as environmental protection rectification, withdrawal from the city into a park, and "coal-to-gas" policy.Due to policy factors, the daily ceramic tile production capacity has decreased by 1.167 million square meters in the past three years.
In other words, in the past three years, the daily production capacity of ceramic tiles in Guangdong Province and Linyi, Shandong Province has been reduced by 3.4832 million square meters just because of policy factors such as "coal to gas" and environmental protection. In contrast, in other ceramic production areas that have not been affected by industrial policies, the daily production capacity of indoor ceramic tiles (excluding exterior wall tiles) has generally increased slightly in the past three years.
To sum up, the above data show that neither the market demand for ceramic tiles nor the production capacity of indoor ceramic tiles (excluding exterior wall tiles) has significantly shrunk or reduced, and the problem of overcapacity has not been effectively alleviated. In 2020, Guangdong Ceramics will withdraw a large number of production lines and production capacity due to the "coal-to-gas" transition. However, this has stimulated booming sales in other production areas such as Jiangxi, Sichuan and even Zibo, Shandong, as well as a new round of ceramic tile production capacity. expansion.
Besides production capacity, the neglected price plummeted
However, since 2017, it is an indisputable fact that a large number of ceramic companies and production lines in the ceramic industry have withdrawn, and total revenue has declined sharply.
In fact, thanks to the extensive technological transformation and application of wide-body kilns and large-capacity production lines, the daily production capacity of ceramic tile single lines has been continuously refreshed. In the past three years, the national average single-line daily production capacity of ceramic tiles has increased from 14,700 square meters in 2017 to 16,300 square meters in 2020, with the average single-line daily production capacity increasing by 10.88%.
In the context of a slight decline in total production capacity, the increase in the average daily production capacity of ceramic tile single lines will inevitably squeeze out the living space of some backward production capacities. This is one of the important reasons for the withdrawal of a large number of production lines in the past few years.
According to the latest survey data from the 2020 "Ceramic Industry Long March", the average single-line daily production capacity of ceramic tiles in Hebei Province has reached an astonishing 30,000 square meters, and the average daily production capacity of ceramic tiles in Linyi, Shandong Province is also as high as 28,000 square meters. And in 2020, ceramic companies are becoming more enthusiastic about technological transformation and building new lines. There are more than 110 new or technologically transformed production lines across the country, most of which are large-capacity production lines. It is foreseeable that in the next few years, a large number of old lines with backward production capacity will be eliminated.
The core reason for the continued decline in the industry's total revenue may be the sharp drop in the unit price of ceramic tiles. Dimensionality reduction and suppression of first-tier brands and price wars between second-tier, third-tier and fourth-tier brands have intensified. This fierce price war has caused the prices of many categories to fall to the lowest point in history.
During the investigation of the "Long March of the Ceramic Industry", 800×800mm polished tiles in some production areas have dropped to 11 yuan/piece, 600× 600mm antique bricks are less than 5 yuan/piece, 300×600mm ceramic tiles are 2.7 yuan/piece...the price is only lower, not the lowest.
According to the preliminary understanding of the "Ceramic Information" newspaper, the price of 400×800mm medium plate in some producing areas was as high as 10 yuan/piece in 2017, but fell to less than 7 yuan in 2020, a drop of more than 30%; 800×800mm full-body marble tiles In 2017, it could still be sold for 23-30 yuan/piece in many production areas, but in 2020 it dropped to 16 or 17 yuan/piece, a drop of more than 30%...
Gone are the days when even “idiots” could make money
Since the "Long March of the Ceramic Industry" in 2014, there have been a net decrease of 297 ceramic factories in the country in six years. Behind each ceramic factory, hundreds of practitioners and families are involved. The cruel reshuffle is disappointing.
After combing through these ceramic factories that have withdrawn, most of them have the same characteristics: First, the development of the enterprise is sluggish, and there has been no adjustment or change in product structure and production capacity scale in the past few years; Second, they stick to the old rules and compete with consumer demand and Against the background that the industrial development situation has undergone earth-shaking changes, the response to market and product upgrades is slow; 3. The product structure and channel structure are single, and the only way to cope with market competition is "price war"; 4. Old ideas and innovation Weak, the enterprise lacks potential for development, and is at a loss to face various business challenges...
In an era of surge in production capacity and explosive growth in demand, a large amount of capital has entered the ceramic industry across borders. As long as there is production capacity, "any fool can make money", but now the market's requirements for the professionalism of ceramic enterprise operators are obviously increasing. High, a group of "amateur players" are limited by their horizons and professionalism, and gradually fall behind.
The contrast is huge. In the new "Ceramic Industry Long March" in 2020, the "Ceramic Information" newspaper interviewed a large number of ceramic enterprise operators and decision-makers. Regarding the same topics such as the development prospects of production areas and the future direction of enterprises, high-quality What enterprises see is hope and direction, and they innovate and develop as planned; declining enterprises are full of grumbles and complaints, see the sunset of the industry, and just muddle along and resign themselves to fate.
Looking at major ceramic production areas, no matter how bad the external environment is, there are always a group of high-quality companies that can get stronger and stronger. Their development speed and the health of the companies are obviously better than other companies in the same production area. Just like the current reshuffle in the ceramic industry, in addition to the rapid expansion and growth of leading companiesOver time, there are always a group of "dark horses" and unicorns who can stroll around and look at the present with a smile.
In addition, during the 2020 "Ceramic Industry Long March" survey, the survey team found that a large number of small and medium-sized production areas lacked industrial supporting facilities, product supporting facilities, and insufficient congenital conditions, resulting in limited development space. In the new era, the reshuffle of ceramic production areas is equally fierce. Those ceramic production areas that blindly attract investment and lack scientific and reasonable planning and sustained policy support are declining and dying.
The ceramic industry "changes its blood" and leading companies attack
Of course, through the new "Long March of the Ceramics Industry", we have also seen the positive power of the development of the ceramics industry: product innovation and product structure in the entire industry have become more diversified, especially the explosive development of rock slabs that has fascinated the world. Look sideways; the application, design and display level of ceramic tiles have been significantly upgraded again; thanks to continuous environmental protection investment and management, most ceramic companies have a completely new factory image; more ceramic companies hold high the banner of "high-quality development" and are in A big step forward on the road to intelligence, greenness and science...
From the perspective of the industrial structure, after the reshuffle and iteration in the past few years, the industry concentration has further increased, and the continued expansion and growth of leading ceramic companies and regional leading ceramic companies is gratifying.
In 2019, Weimei Group's revenue exceeded 10 billion yuan for the first time, becoming the first "10 billion ceramic enterprise" in the ceramic tile industry. If nothing unexpected happens, Weimei Group's revenue will still exceed the "10 billion yuan mark" in 2020 , the “10 billion dream” that was once out of reach in the building and ceramics industry has been realized in this era of fierce reshuffle, and in the next five years, leading companies such as Xinmingzhu, Dongpeng, Oceano, and Mona Lisa will All have the potential to become “tens of billions” ceramic enterprises.
In the 2020 "Ceramic Industry Long March" survey statistics, we also saw that a number of leading ceramic companies such as Weimei, Nobel, Dongpeng, Oceano, and Mona Lisa are still aggressively competing for land; roof tiles The leader, Jiufang Tile Industry, will build two new production bases and six lines in one go in 2020, forming an industrial layout of 19 production lines in seven major production bases across the country; Jiangxi Huasuo Ceramics Group, Sun Ceramics Group, and Ruiyang Group will also build new ones in 2020. Through a new round of production capacity layout, we will stride towards "3 billion level". In addition, there are also a number of "unicorn" companies with outstanding performance, such as Dajiulu's super wear-resistant marble tiles, which has found a new way, overtaken in corners, laid out new bases, and achieved new expansion of production capacity...…
In terms of product categories, new categories such as medium boards, floor paving stones, rock slabs, and functional bricks are emerging in endlessly and in a variety of ways. Category divisions have been further refined, providing new assistance for extending industry boundaries and opening up new application spaces. A batch of innovative ceramic enterprises have seized new opportunities, developed new categories, established a new status in the world, and business operations have soared.
One small step for innovation, one big step for development. The 2020 "Ceramic Industry Long March" not only reorganized the national ceramic tile production capacity profile, but also paid close attention to the operations of 1,155 ceramic factories across the country. Overall, the entry threshold for the ceramic industry is increasing year by year, and ceramic companies and practitioners are facing a large-scale "replacement" - a large number of complacent and sluggish companies and practitioners are being replaced by innovative, dynamic, professional and powerful new forces and powerful players. Instead, the living space is shrinking.
Survival of the fittest and survival of the fittest are not only the survival laws of nature, but also a true reflection of the dramatic reshuffle of the ceramic industry in recent years.
(The article is reproduced from Ceramic Information)
